International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition

2025 Prediction Competition

When will the cherry trees bloom in 2025?

We invite you to submit your predictions for Washington, D.C. (USA), Kyoto (Japan), Liestal-Weideli (Switzerland), Vancouver, BC (Canada) and New York City (USA), along with a short abstract and reproducible analysis containing any data and code used. Complete entries will be eligible to win cash and prizes—based on multiple categories, including best prediction and most novel idea—and will be featured on Real World Data Science. See the complete competition rules for details.

Introducing a new award: Beat the bot!

This year, you will not only compete against each other for the top prizes—but against artificial intelligence.

We will create one or more submissions from the most popular large language GPTs. Our AI handlers will prompt the AI with the contest rules and the entries from previous competitions. The handlers will then execute any code written by the AI as part of their entry.

All human participants that beat the AI-generated predictions will receive commemorative memorabilia indicating they “beat the bot in the 2025 International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition.”

Ready to submit your predictions for 2025?

Submissions will be accepted until Feb 28, 2025 (Anywhere on Earth).
Data and sample code is available in the template GitHub repository.

Check out the entries of the past winners to get some inspirations on successful modeling techniques and narratives. The “getting started” videos provide information on cherry trees, bloom dates, and how to start modeling. In addition, see this template GitHub repository and the tutorial on the The Law of the Flowering Plants.

Please contact the competition organizers with any questions using the contact submission form.

Organizers

Jonathan Auerbach

Department of Statistics
George Mason University
https://jauerbach.github.io/

David Kepplinger

Department of Statistics
George Mason University
https://www.dkepplinger.org

Elizabeth Wolkovich

Department of Forest & Conservation Sciences
University of British Columbia
https://temporalecology.org/

Judges

Photo of Rollinson Field, standing in a forest.
Dr. Christine Rollinson
Forest Ecologist
The Morton Arboretum

Dr. Nathan Lenssen
Teaching Assistant Professor, Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Colorado School of Mines
Dr. Will Pearse
Senior Lecturer
Imperial College London
Dr. Cheryl Brooks
Statistics Research Department
AT&T Labs
Dr. Mason Heberling
Assistant Curator of Botany
Carnegie Museum of Natural History
Dr. Lelys Bravo de Guenni
Clinical Associate Professor
Department of Statistics
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Dr. Ed Wu
Science Policy Fellow
American Statistical Association