Predictions from the 2026 International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition!

2026 Cherry Blossom Prediction

We challenged contestants to predict the day that the cherry trees will reach peak bloom.

We asked contestants to submit their best predictions for select trees in Washington, D.C. and New York City (USA), Kyoto (Japan), Liestal-Weideli (Switzerland), and Vancouver, B.C. (Canada), along with a compelling narrative and reproducible analysis containing any data and code used. The competition is challenging because while it is known that cherry trees tend to bloom earlier as climates warm, complex weather patterns make annual predictions extremely difficult.

For the fifth year in a row, students, researchers, and citizen scientists from around the world accepted our challenge. We will not be able to declare a winner until the cherry trees bloom later this year, but we are excited to share the predictions made by the contestants.

The predictions are in!

The calendars below show the days the contestants predict the peak bloom date will occur. Some believe peak bloom will occur in early March, while others believe it will occur in early May. When the entries are combined, the consensus is that the cherry trees will reach peak bloom between late March and early April. The average predicted peak bloom dates are March 30^th for Vancouver, BC, April 1^st for Kyoto, April 2^nd for Washington D.C. and Liestal-Weideli, and April 6^th for New York City—denoted on the calendars by 🌸.

Overall, the contestants agree with the Japan Meteorological Corporation prediction

The contestants agree with the Japan Meteorological Corporation’s 6^th forecast on average, which predicts that the peak bloom of the Kyoto cherry trees will occur on March 31^st. (Note JMC provided predictions for Prunus × yedoensis while the contestants predicted Prunus jamasakura. These species have similar but not identical bloom dates.)

The National Park Service predicts the peak bloom of the Washington D.C. cherry trees will occur between March 29^th and April 1^st. The entries from the contestants suggest a similar range (March 31^st to April 4^th). This also overlaps with the predictions from Storm Team4 (March 30^th to April 5^th) and The Washington Post (April 3^rd to April 7^th).

For Vancouver, BC and New York City, where there is almost no historical data, contestants thought that full bloom would be March 30^th and April 6^th, respectively. The Vancouver Cherry Blossom Festival posts updates on the stage of their cherry trees on the UBC Botanical Garden Forums.

A big thanks to our sponsors, partners, and judges.

We thank Posit, American Statistical Association, Washington Statistical Society, Caucus for Women in Statistics, George Mason University’s Department of Statistics, Georgetown University’s Massive Data Institute, and Columbia University’s Department of Statistics and Real World Data Science for their support, and partnerships with the International Society of Biometeorology, MeteoSwiss, USA National Phenology Network, the Vancouver Cherry Blossom Festival, Local Nature Lab, and WSP Eco Projects—as well as Mason’s Institute for Digital InnovAtion, Institute for a Sustainable Earth, and the Department of Modern and Classical Languages. We also thank our observers who send in observations of flowering, and our judges Lelys Bravo de Guenni, Brittany Sutherland, Mason Heberling, Nathan Lenssen, Will Pearse, and Christine Rollinson. Thank you!

Organizers

Judges